inner peace

My political views-南北朝鮮關係

Northeast Asia without U.S. military presence:T

he security alignment and relative status quo has allowed temporary peace in the Northeast Asian Region. The current provocation from the North Korean regime further underscores the reality and necessity of United States' military presence in this highly potentially unstable region of the world. More than ever after the Cold War, current U.S. military withdrawal from the region would lead to disastrous consequences for all actors in Northeast Asia. The present regional check and balances will be left unchecked with United States’ departure.

Following the Cold War legacy of containment, United States’ strategic presence in Northeast Asia was based on both economic reasons and its normative foreign policy at the time. It was and still includes spreading market economy, open political institution, and establishing regional stability in the area. To further this normative foreign policy, the United States also seeks to maintain its military presence in the area.

Even in the scenario where Korea does reunify, it is said that instability would occur with the absence of U.S. troops due to the high degree of regional factionalism which could intensify after reunification. Under the same scenario of one Korea, Japan will feel threatened as Korea moves closer towards China. Likewise, Korea might feel threatened by China’s attempt to be more influential in the Korean peninsula. U.S. withdrawal will also be disastrous to Taiwan’s reliance on the already ambiguous state of U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security in the event of China’s invasion. Currently, it is at the best interest of the region to safeguard the status quo with U.S. involvement.

However, Given that Korean unifies smoothly upon the collapse of the North Korean regime and that Taiwan and China resolves the two China issue, the scenario will be quite different from the more realistic scenario discussed earlier. With the resolution of the main tension points in the region, in addition to allowing Japan to build up its own defense capacity if even necessary, the United States then has no security obligations to stay in Japan and South Korea.

Even in this relatively optimal scenario, many issues may still arise. First of all, the shift of alignment of Korea and China could make Japan feel threatened. In turn, Japan’s newfound military independence will feed into Korea’s perception of Japanese threat of expansion. Upon its exit, United States will devise another way to maintain its political and economic hegemonic status in Northeast Asia in particular, to deter the possible emerging Northeast Asian economic and political bloc. The China-Korea alignment could also very well make Japan nervous and induce greater military expenditures.

Even at the optimal scenario where reunification and withdrawal of U.S. troops occur, the new set of realignments will be crucial to maintaining the security and economic check and balances in the region which can have great consequences beyond Northeast Asia. The actors in this region can also think in a more liberal rather than realist framework to achieve peaceful, interdependent coexistence in the region.

posted by Y @ 1/27/2004 10:31:00 PM